BUFFALO, NY — The National Weather Service (NWS) in Buffalo has issued a comprehensive suite of high-impact weather warnings for Western New York, headlined by a Lakeshore Flood Warning set to take effect on Monday, December 29, 2025. The region is bracing for a “seiche”—a rapid rise in water levels on Lake Erie caused by powerful, sustained winds—that could push lake levels to eight feet above the low water datum, threatening coastal infrastructure and residential communities.
The Lakeshore Flood Warning is valid from 5:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. Monday and covers Northern Erie, Southern Erie, Niagara, and Chautauqua counties.
The “Seiche” Effect: Why Lake Erie is at Risk
Lake Erie is uniquely susceptible to seiches because of its shallow depth and east-west orientation. When strong southwest winds blow along the long axis of the lake, they literally “push” the water toward the eastern end (Buffalo), while water levels drop at the western end (Toledo).
Forecasters expect southwest winds to increase significantly Monday morning, reaching gale-to-storm force.
- Peak Winds: Sustained southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.
- Wave Heights: Nearshore waves are expected to build to 14 to 19 feet, with occasional waves reaching a staggering 24 feet.
- Projected Water Rise: A rise of 8 feet is forecasted, which typically triggers significant flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
Specific Areas Facing High Flood Risk
The National Weather Service has identified several “flood-prone” locations where the rapid rise in water will likely cause road closures and property damage:
| Region | High-Risk Locations |
| Lake Erie Shore | Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor, Canalside, and Dunkirk Harbor. |
| Upper Niagara River | Grand Island and Cayuga Island. |
| Coastal Erie County | Woodlawn Beach, Hoover Beach, and the City Ship Canal. |
Authorities warn that Route 5 in Hamburg—a major commuter artery—is particularly vulnerable and will likely face closures as lake water and debris wash over the retaining walls.
A Multi-Hazard Event: Wind, Rain, and “Whiteout” Snow
The lakeshore flooding is only one component of a massive late-December storm system.
- High Wind Warning: In effect from 4:00 a.m. Monday to 1:00 a.m. Tuesday. Widespread power outages are expected as 70 mph gusts hit trees rooted in saturated, non-frozen ground.
- Flood Watch: Excessive rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5 inches, combined with melting snow from higher elevations, could push Buffalo-area creeks and rivers to their banks.
- Winter Storm Warning: As temperatures plummet Monday afternoon, rain will flash-freeze into snow. Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Southern Erie counties are under a warning for 1 to 2 feet of lake-effect snow and whiteout conditions through Friday.
Safety and Preparedness: Stay Off the Shoreline
Emergency officials are urging residents and “storm chasers” to maintain a safe distance from the water.
“For your safety, stay off breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings, and beaches,” the NWS stated in its Sunday morning bulletin. “Waves are often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away.”
Recommended Actions for Residents:
- Charge All Devices: With widespread power outages anticipated due to 70 mph winds, ensure phones and backup batteries are fully charged.
- Secure Property: Move outdoor furniture, trash cans, and holiday decorations indoors before 4:00 a.m. Monday.
- Basement Protection: Ensure sump pumps are clear and working; consider a battery backup if your area is prone to flooding.
- Avoid Travel: If you must commute on Monday, avoid lakeshore roads and be prepared for sudden whiteout conditions by Monday evening.