By FLJA NEWS: Monday, February 9, 2026
Wall Street is holding its breath. In less than three weeks, on February 25, Nvidia (NVDA) will release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings results, an event that has arguably become more significant to the broader market than the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. The stakes have never been higher for the AI-chip sovereign, especially as it navigates a 13% correction from its peak last autumn and faces intensifying competition from rivals like AMD and Broadcom.
However, amidst the nervous shuffling of portfolios and the quiet whispers of an “AI bubble,” Goldman Sachs has issued a clarion call. The 157-year-old investment bank, widely regarded as a bellwether for institutional sentiment, has revamped its forecast, predicting that Nvidia is poised to deliver a massive $2 billion revenue surprise.
The Goldman Sachs Bull Case: A $67.3 Billion Quarter
In a research note shared with TheStreet this morning, Goldman Sachs analysts reaffirmed their conviction in the chipmaker’s dominance. While the consensus on Wall Street has been cautiously optimistic, Goldman is aggressively bullish. The bank projects Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenue will hit a staggering $67.3 billion, significantly outpacing the median estimates held by other firms.
“We expect Nvidia to deliver a ~$2bn revenue beat in 4Q, and we stand 8% above the Street for 1Q revenue,” the analysts wrote.
This isn’t just a revenue story; it is a profitability story. Goldman’s models suggest that Nvidia’s operational leverage remains underestimated. The note highlights that their earnings per share (EPS) estimates are largely decoupled from the conservative consensus: “Our 4Q and 1Q EPS estimates are 5% and 9% above the Street.”
If Goldman’s crystal ball is accurate, the narrative that Nvidia’s growth is decelerating to “mortal” levels may be premature. A $2 billion beat would effectively silence critics who have argued that the company is hitting a revenue ceiling due to supply constraints at key manufacturing partner TSMC. Instead, it suggests that supply chain bottlenecks for Nvidia’s latest architecture—likely the Blackwell B200 and legacy H100 units—are easing faster than anticipated, allowing the company to fulfill its massive backlog of orders.
The “Priced In” Paradox
Despite the glowing forecast, Goldman Sachs included a crucial caveat: excellent results might not immediately translate to a skyrocketing stock price. The analysts raised valid concerns that investors may have already “priced in” a strong quarterly result.
Nvidia’s stock is currently trading down 13% from its all-time highs reached in the fall of 2025. This correction reflects a broader anxiety in the market. Unlike in 2023 or 2024, when any beat sent the stock soaring, the bar for 2026 is set in the stratosphere. The market has grown accustomed to Nvidia shattering records; now, shattering them is merely the baseline expectation.
The Goldman note suggests a shift in investor psychology. The trading algorithms and institutional desks are no longer looking at the rear-view mirror of the last quarter. Their gaze has shifted entirely to the horizon: specifically, guidance for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
“The focus is shifting from recent performance to Nvidia’s guidance for 2026 and 2027,” the report noted. Investors need assurance that the demand curve isn’t flattening. They need to know that the billions of dollars in Capital Expenditure (CapEx) pledged by Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon will continue to flow into Nvidia’s coffers for another two years, rather than drying up as these hyperscalers begin to digest their massive infrastructure build-outs.
The Competitive Siege: AMD and Broadcom
The context of this earnings report is complicated by a competitive landscape that is far more hostile than it was two years ago. While Nvidia remains the undisputed king of the hill, the wolves are circling.
AMD has been steadily chipping away at Nvidia’s monopoly with its MI-series accelerators. By offering a compelling price-to-performance ratio, AMD has secured victories with cost-conscious data centers and enterprises looking to diversify their supply chains. The fact that AMD stock is up over 8% recently suggests the market believes they are finally making a dent.
Broadcom (AVGO), up nearly 7% recently, presents a different kind of threat. Broadcom specializes in custom silicon (ASICs). As tech giants like Google and Meta design their own in-house AI chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, Broadcom is often the partner helping them physically realize those designs. Every custom chip deployed is theoretically one less Nvidia GPU sold.
Goldman’s forecast implies that despite these encroachments, the pie is growing fast enough that Nvidia can lose slight market share while still growing revenue at a record pace. The demand for “Sovereign AI”—nations building their own computing infrastructure—and the push toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) continues to require the raw, unadulterated power that, for now, only Nvidia’s ecosystem can reliably provide.
A History of Defying Gravity
To understand the weight of the upcoming February 25 earnings, one must look at the trajectory that brought us here.
I have owned Nvidia stock since 2017. Back then, the narrative wasn’t about Generative AI or Large Language Models; it was about cryptocurrency mining and high-end PC gaming. When the crypto bubble burst, Nvidia’s stock collapsed, losing nearly half its value. It was a brutal lesson in cyclicality.
But the company reinvented itself. The pivotal moment came in late 2022 with the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. That event uncorked a global frenzy. Suddenly, data centers—previously filled with Central Processing Units (CPUs)—needed to be retrofitted with Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to handle the massive parallel processing required by AI.
Nvidia was the only arms dealer in town.
For the last three years, the company has executed a “perfect game.” They have delivered earnings beats and raised guidance quarter after quarter, a feat few companies in history have sustained for so long. They became the poster child for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
However, the laws of large numbers eventually apply. With a market capitalization now rivaling the GDP of major nations, doubling in size becomes exponentially harder. Most institutional portfolios already boast significant Nvidia exposure. The “fear of missing out” (FOMO) that drove prices higher in 2023 and 2024 has largely dissipated because everyone is already in. There is far less “sideline money” left to drive a fresh rally unless the guidance is nothing short of revolutionary.
The Supply Chain and the “Air Pocket” Fear
One of the nuances Goldman likely considered is the supply chain dynamic. Throughout 2024 and 2025, Nvidia sold every chip TSMC could manufacture. Demand exceeded supply.
Heading into 2026, there were fears of an “air pocket”—a temporary dip in demand as customers waited for the next generation of chips (likely the transition from Hopper/Blackwell architectures to the next iteration). If Goldman is predicting a $2 billion beat, it suggests no such air pocket exists. It implies that customers are so desperate for compute power that they are buying whatever is available now, rather than waiting for better tech later.
This is a bullish signal for the entire semiconductor sector. It indicates that the “AI application layer” is finally catching up to the infrastructure layer. Software companies are finding ways to monetize AI, which validates the massive hardware spend.
What to Watch on February 25
When Jensen Huang takes the virtual stage on February 25, the numbers will matter, but the words will matter more.
- The $67.3 Billion Target: If Nvidia hits or exceeds Goldman’s number, the stock will likely stabilize. If they miss, the 13% correction could deepen significantly.
- Gross Margins: As Nvidia ramps up new, more complex products, are their margins compressing? Investors will want to see margins holding steady above 70%.
- China: With export controls constantly evolving, how much revenue is Nvidia deriving from the Chinese market via compliant chips?
- The 2027 Outlook: This is the big one. Does Huang see a path to growth in 2027, or does he hint at a plateau?
Final Thoughts
Goldman Sachs has placed a bold bet. By predicting a significant beat in an environment where expectations are already sky-high, they are signaling that the AI trade is far from over.
For long-term investors, the volatility leading up to February 25 is noise. The signal is whether Nvidia remains the fundamental architecture of the future economy. Goldman believes the answer is a resounding “yes.”
But as we sit here in February 2026, with the stock down from its highs and competitors sharpening their knives, the margin for error has vanished. Nvidia doesn’t just need to be good; it needs to be perfect. Again.
Summary of Data
| Metric | Wall St. Consensus | Goldman Sachs Est. | Deviation |
| Q4 Revenue | ~$65.3 Billion | $67.3 Billion | +$2 Billion |
| Q4 EPS | Street Consensus | +5% vs Street | +5% |
| Q1 Revenue | Street Consensus | +8% vs Street | +8% |
| Q1 EPS | Street Consensus | +9% vs Street | +9% |
Disclaimer: The author holds a long position in NVDA. The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.