CARACAS/NEW YORK — President Donald Trump has set a bold 18-month deadline to revitalize Venezuela’s crippled oil industry, following the dramatic January 3 military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro from power. In an interview with NBC News on Monday, the President asserted that the United States is now “in charge” of the nation’s energy future and predicted a rapid restoration of production that could lower global oil prices.
“A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue,” Trump stated. He even suggested the timeline could be faster, though analysts warn that decades of neglect make a quick “restart” nearly impossible.
The “18-Month” Reconstruction Plan
The Trump administration’s strategy focuses on mobilizing U.S. oil majors to rebuild a system that has seen production collapse from 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the 1990s to roughly 1.1 million bpd today.
- Federal Subsidies: Trump hinted at U.S. government “reimbursements” or subsidies for energy firms to mitigate the high risks of re-entry.
- Infrastructure Blitz: The plan requires repairing 50-year-old pipelines, specialized heavy-oil “upgraders,” and power grids that have suffered from looting and a massive “brain drain” of skilled workers.
- Chevron’s Advantage: As the only U.S. major still operating in Venezuela, Chevron is positioned to lead the initial charge, though executives from ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are expected to meet with Energy Secretary Chris Wright this week to discuss their own potential return.
The $183 Billion Reality Check
While the President is optimistic about an 18-month window, energy consultancies like Rystad Energy released a stark report this morning (Jan 6) outlining the true scale of the task.
| Phase | Goal | Estimated Cost | Timeline |
| Short-Term | Hold production at 1.1M bpd | $53 Billion | Next 15 Years |
| Mid-Term | Increase to 2.5M bpd | $100 Billion+ | 10 Years |
| Long-Term | Return to 3M bpd | $183 Billion | By 2040 |
Speaking with NBC News on Monday, Trump expressed confidence that American petroleum giants could repair the nation’s crumbling energy infrastructure in record time. “A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue,” Trump stated. He even speculated that production could ramp up in “less time than that,” despite analysts warning of a decadelong road to recovery.
The Economic Ambition: Tapping the World’s Largest Reserves
The Trump administration’s strategy hinges on the fact that Venezuela sits atop an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—the largest in the world. However, years of mismanagement, corruption, and strict U.S. sanctions have seen production plummet from 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the late 1990s to roughly 1.1 million bpd today.
Key Projections for Venezuelan Oil (2026-2040)
| Metric | Current Status (Jan 2026) | Trump Administration Goal | Expert 10-Year Forecast |
| Production | ~1.1 Million bpd | “Up and Running” | 2.5 Million bpd |
| Investment Needed | Critical Disrepair | “Substantial Amount” | ~$100 Billion – $183 Billion |
| Primary Export Market | China (Shadow Fleets) | United States / Global | Diversified Global Market |
Rystad analysts estimate that only 300,000 to 350,000 bpd can realistically be added within the first 24 months through “short-cycle” repairs and workovers. Reaching the President’s goal of a full industry revival would require roughly $30–$35 billion in committed international capital within the next two years.
Geopolitical and Legal Minefields
The “Day After” Maduro’s capture has triggered a series of complex hurdles for potential investors:
- Expropriation Claims: Exxon and ConocoPhillips are still owed billions for assets seized by Hugo Chávez in 2007. Experts say these firms will require guarantees of restitution before committing new billions.
- The China Factor: For years, Venezuela’s crude has flowed to China through “shadow fleets” to evade sanctions. A U.S.-led revival would likely divert this “heavy and sticky” oil to Gulf Coast refineries, which are specifically optimized for it.
- Governance Uncertainty: While Trump says the U.S. will “run” the country temporarily, Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the U.S. seeks to influence policy rather than take over the administration.
Market Reaction: Energy Service Stocks Surge
Wall Street responded with high volatility on Monday. Shares of oil-field service giants SLB (Schlumberger) and Halliburton saw gains as investors bet on a massive infrastructure rebuilding effort. Meanwhile, Canadian heavy crude producers saw their stock prices dip on fears of future competition from cheaper Venezuelan barrels.
“The issue isn’t finding the oil—it’s whether companies can count on a stable government to live up to their contracts,” said Francisco Monaldi of Rice University’s Baker Institute.