The global energy landscape shifted violently on Saturday, February 28, 2026, as the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a massive joint military offensive targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. With explosions rocking Tehran and retaliatory strikes hitting US bases across the Gulf, the specter of a prolonged regional war has sent shockwaves through global markets, leaving one question at the forefront of every economist’s mind: Is $100 oil inevitable?
The Immediate Shock: Risk Premiums Explode
Even before the first missiles were launched, traders had begun “baking in” the possibility of conflict. However, the sheer scale of the Saturday strikes—targeting everything from IRGC headquarters to naval assets—has transformed theoretical risk into market reality.
- Brent Crude: Jumped over 3.4% in a single session to close at $72.87 as news of the strikes broke.
- WTI Crude: Surged 3.2%, ending at $67.29.
- The Forecast: Analysts at PVM and Barclays suggest that even a contained conflict could push prices to $80 per barrel by the Monday market open.
The ‘Strait’ Path to $100
While $80 is the immediate baseline, the jump to $100 depends entirely on the Strait of Hormuz. This 21-mile-wide waterway is the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, handling approximately 20 million barrels per day—roughly 20% of global consumption.
If Iran retaliates by attempting to blockade the Strait or targeting tankers, experts warn that a supply deficit would override any current global surpluses. “A prolonged conflict that disrupts actual supply could send prices much higher, with a material effect on global inflation,” warns William Jackson, chief economist for emerging markets at Capital Economics.
The Economic Fallout: A Global Ripple Effect
A surge toward $100 oil doesn’t just impact gas stations; it threatens to derail the global recovery from the inflationary pressures of 2025.
| Sector | Potential Impact |
|---|---|
| Global Inflation | Higher transportation and manufacturing costs could force central banks to keep interest rates elevated. |
| Aviation | With Gulf airspace shutting down indefinitely, flight cancellations and massive fuel surcharges are expected. |
| Equity Markets | Markets in India (Nifty/Sensex) and Europe already saw “deep cuts” on Friday in anticipation of the weekend escalation. |
| Regional GDP | History serves as a grim guide: Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in 2025 resulted in a 1.1% GDP drop in just one quarter. |
The Bottom Line
With President Donald Trump declaring that “the hour of freedom is at hand” and the Iranian IRGC vowing that “all US interests are legitimate targets,” the geopolitical risk premium is no longer a footnote—it is the driver. Whether oil hits $100 depends on if this “Epic Fury” remains a surgical strike or descends into a total blockade of the world’s energy arteries.
Would you like me to generate an updated market analysis table or an image showing the impact on global shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz?