NEW YORK — The road to the Super Bowl officially intensifies today as NFL Wild Card Weekend moves into its most pivotal stretch. With a Sunday tripleheader featuring the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers, and the New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers, the betting windows at DraftKings are seeing record-breaking volume.
From “wiseguy” line movements in Jacksonville to heavy public backing for the reigning champion Eagles, the markets are shifting rapidly as kickoff approaches. Whether you are looking for sharp money splits or the most popular player props, here is the comprehensive betting breakdown for NFL Wild Card Sunday 2026.
Game 1: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
- Current Line: Jaguars -1.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Moneyline: Jaguars -122 / Bills +102
The early window features a fascinating “dog to favorite” line movement. After opening as 1.5-point road favorites, the Buffalo Bills (12-5) have seen the line flip entirely. Despite 55% of spread tickets at DraftKings coming in on Josh Allen and the Bills, the “sharp” money has steamed the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) into a 1.5-point favorite.
Market Insight: At Circa Sports and DraftKings, the Jaguars are pulling in a massive 76% of the spread dollars despite having only a slight majority of tickets. This “low bets, high dollars” split is a classic indicator of professional action.
Best Bet: * Jaguars Moneyline (-122): Experts are leaning toward the home team’s momentum, as Trevor Lawrence enters the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak.
- The Under 51.5: While 72% of the public is hammering the Over, the total has actually dropped from 52.5, suggesting sharps are betting on a defensive battle in the Florida humidity.
Game 2: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Current Line: Eagles -6
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Moneyline: Eagles -265 / 49ers +220
This is the heavyweight clash of the day. The Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), looking to defend their Lombardi Trophy, have seen their spread balloon from -3.5 to -6. The market correction comes as the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) deal with significant injury concerns, including star tackle Trent Williams and receiver Ricky Pearsall.
Player Prop Spotlight:
- Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-114): Barkley’s receiving prop has seen the most dramatic climb of the week, rising from an opener of 9.5. Sharps expect Jalen Hurts to use Barkley as a safety valve against the Niners’ pass rush.
- Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-169): Purdy has struggled to find multiple touchdowns in the red zone during previous playoff runs, and the market is banking on a run-heavy Niners approach.
Strategic Note: Wild Card underdogs who missed the playoffs the previous season (like these 49ers) are 23-9 Against The Spread (ATS) since 2017. While the Eagles are the favorites, the +6 line for San Francisco is attracting “value hunters.”
Game 3: L.A. Chargers at New England Patriots (8:15 p.m. ET, NBC)
- Current Line: Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -192 / Chargers +160
Sunday Night Football pits potential league MVP Drake Maye against the veteran precision of Justin Herbert. Despite 65% of the public laying the points with the Patriots at home, the line has remained stagnant at -3.5, suggesting sportsbooks are comfortable taking New England money.
The “Sharp” Angle: The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) fit a highly profitable betting system: Wild Card dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 16-1 ATS (94%) since 2017.
Best Bet:
- Chargers +3.5: Many analysts believe the Chargers’ superior point differential against common opponents makes them a live dog to win outright.
- Drake Maye Passing Yards: Look for Maye to test a Chargers secondary that has been vulnerable to the deep ball in primetime games this season.
DraftKings “Action” Summary
According to DraftKings betting splits, the most-bet “Same Game Parlay” legs for today include:
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD Scorer (-133)
- Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (+114)
- Josh Allen 250+ Passing Yards
| Matchup | Public Favorite (Tickets) | Sharp Favorite (Money) |
| BUF vs. JAX | Bills | Jaguars |
| SF vs. PHI | Eagles | Eagles |
| LAC vs. NE | Patriots | Chargers |