The Shivering Silent: High Costs and Fading Subsidies Leave Chinese Villagers in the Cold

XUSHUI, China — As the sun sets over the frost-dusted plains of Hebei province, the air is noticeably clearer than it was a decade ago. The biting, sulfurous tang of coal smoke that once defined northern Chinese winters has largely vanished, replaced by a crisp, blue-sky horizon. But for 64-year-old Li Guanhua, the “Blue Sky” comes at a price he can no longer afford to pay.

“We used to have the coal stove going all day. It was dirty, sure, but it was warm,” Li says, gesturing to the silent natural gas heater mounted on his wall. “Now, I only turn this on for an hour before bed. The rest of the time, we just wear more layers.”

Li is one of millions of rural residents caught in the crossfire of China’s aggressive energy transition. Nearly ten years after Beijing launched its “Coal-to-Gas” (煤改气) and “Coal-to-Electricity” campaigns to combat the lethal winter smog, the financial safety nets that made the switch possible are unraveling. As of early 2026, the generous subsidies that once covered the lion’s share of heating bills in northern China have almost entirely evaporated, leaving a trail of “energy poverty” in their wake.

A Mandate for Change

The shift began in earnest in 2017, when the central government mandated that dozens of northern “pilot cities” replace traditional coal-fired stoves with cleaner alternatives. The policy was a cornerstone of the “war on pollution,” aimed at reducing PM2.5 levels that frequently soared to hazardous levels during the heating season.

Initially, the transition was buoyed by massive state investment. Central and local governments allocated billions of yuan to refit village homes with gas pipelines and electric heat pumps. In those early years, the government also provided direct subsidies for the fuel itself, often capping the price of natural gas for rural users or offering annual cash rebates of several hundred yuan.

However, these programs were designed to be temporary—a “nudge” to transition the market. Most of these subsidies were structured to fade after three years. By the winter of 2025-2026, many households in districts like Xushui, roughly 100 kilometers from the capital, find themselves facing the full brunt of market prices.

The Math of Survival

The economic disparity between urban and rural heating is stark. In urban centers, district heating systems benefit from economies of scale and continued municipal support. In contrast, rural homes are often larger, detached, and poorly insulated, requiring significantly more energy to maintain a livable temperature.